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2004-12-04

Model Predictions

Model Illinois Fighting Illini Arkansas Razorbacks Spread Result
Elo 70.4% 29.6% -
Bradley-Terry 42.1% 57.9% -
Margin 33.0% 67.0% +3.9 (15.9 off)
Pythagorean 64.5% 35.5% -
Efficiency 96.8% 3.2% -
Adjusted Efficiency 94.2% 5.8% -
Log Adjusted 94.3% 5.7% -

Actual: Arkansas Razorbacks -12 (60-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Brown 37 4-7 2-5 3-4 1 3 2 0 7 13 5 -
D. Williams 36 3-11 2-4 5-6 4 5 0 0 2 13 9 -
L. Head 35 2-7 1-5 3-4 3 2 0 0 2 8 4 -
R. Powell 33 6-11 1-2 6-10 11 0 0 1 1 19 19 -
J. Augustine 19 1-3 0-0 3-8 5 1 0 0 1 5 7 -
Nick Smith 16 3-6 1-1 0-2 2 1 0 2 1 7 5 -
R. McBride 12 1-3 0-2 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 -
J. Ingram 10 1-1 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 1 0 2 5 -
W. Carter 2 1-3 0-0 1-1 2 0 1 0 0 3 3 -

Arkansas Razorbacks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Payne 34 9-14 2-4 1-7 4 1 4 0 2 21 14 -
E. Ferguson 30 3-12 1-4 0-0 1 6 0 0 0 7 2 -
S. Hill 30 0-1 0-0 1-3 4 0 0 6 2 1 8 -
O. Famutimi 27 3-7 2-4 1-2 3 0 1 0 1 9 5 -
C. Thomas 23 1-6 0-1 7-10 4 0 0 0 2 9 5 -
D. Jefferson 20 0-4 0-2 3-5 3 3 0 0 1 3 4 -
R. Sullivan 19 1-2 0-0 4-5 7 1 1 1 1 6 13 -
J. Modica 11 1-1 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 3 2 -1 -
D. Townes 6 0-3 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -
Michael Jones 0 1-2 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 -

* = starter