Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.5% | 79.5% | +7.5 | ✓ (0.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +7 (81-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Davis * | 34 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 3-8 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | - |
| S. Brown * | 33 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| M. Ager * | 30 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 7-10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| A. Anderson * | 27 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | - |
| C. Hill * | 26 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - |
| K. Torbert | 25 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 7 | - |
| D. Neitzel | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Tim Bograkos | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| D. Rowley | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Redick * | 40 | 9-18 | 5-9 | 6-6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 16 | - |
| D. Ewing * | 38 | 10-14 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 26 | - |
| S. Williams * | 36 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 13 | - |
| S. Dockery * | 36 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | - |
| S. Randolph * | 22 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| L. Melchionni | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Nelson | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| D. McClure | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| R. Love | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter