Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Las Vegas Aces | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Las Vegas Aces -12 (65-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna DeForge * | 36 | 7-10 | 4-5 | 8-8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 24 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 34 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Slobodanka Tuvic * | 32 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 31 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 18 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 31 | 4-13 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Tamara Moore | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Nikki McCray | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kayte Christensen | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Shereka Wright | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Ashley Robinson | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Lindsay Taylor | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Johnson * | 36 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Adrienne Goodson * | 31 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Margo Dydek * | 30 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | - |
| LaToya Thomas * | 29 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Marie Ferdinand-Harris * | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Agnieszka Bibrzycka | 27 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Gwen Jackson | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Toccara Williams | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Semeka Randall | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Mandisa Stevenson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter