Model Predictions
| Model | Minnesota Lynx | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +23 (69-46). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Smith * | 35 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Tamika Raymond * | 31 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Nicole Ohlde * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Teresa Edwards * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Amanda Lassiter * | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Tasha Butts | 24 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Stacey Lovelace | 17 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Helen Darling | 16 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -2 | - |
| Vanessa Hayden | 12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Amber Jacobs | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penny Taylor * | 35 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 34 | 6-13 | 2-7 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Anna DeForge * | 29 | 4-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Slobodanka Tuvic * | 27 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Kayte Christensen | 23 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | - |
| Tamara Moore | 10 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Adrian Williams-Strong | 10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Nikki McCray | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Shereka Wright | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Ashley Robinson | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter