Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | Indiana Fever | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Fever -5 (58-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj McWilliams-Franklin * | 35 | 7-16 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 21 | - |
| Lindsay Whalen * | 35 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Katie Douglas * | 33 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Nykesha Sales * | 32 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Wendy Palmer * | 19 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Asjha Jones | 24 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Jessica Brungo | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Candace Futrell | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jennifer Derevjanik | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamika Catchings * | 38 | 6-19 | 1-8 | 6-6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Kelly Miller * | 35 | 3-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Deanna Jackson * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Natalie Williams * | 26 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Ebony Hoffman * | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Kristen Rasmussen | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Astou Ndiaye-Diatta | 15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Coretta Brown | 14 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Stephanie White | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kelly Schumacher | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter