Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | Indiana Fever | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Fever -10 (62-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Johnson * | 34 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Nykesha Sales * | 34 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Katie Douglas * | 32 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Brooke Wyckoff * | 31 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Taj McWilliams-Franklin * | 30 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Adrienne Johnson | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Jessie Hicks | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Wendy Palmer | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Debbie Black | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Williams * | 39 | 8-18 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 15 | - |
| Kristen Rasmussen * | 37 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Nikki McCray * | 36 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Tamika Catchings * | 35 | 4-16 | 1-6 | 11-14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Coquese Washington * | 25 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Niele Ivey | 14 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Kelly Schumacher | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Bridget Pettis | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter