Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Dallas Wings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.4% | 85.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 20.1% | 79.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.7% | 88.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.6% | 88.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 13.0% | 87.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Wings -3 (65-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Williams-Strong * | 36 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 15 | - |
| Anna DeForge * | 34 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Kayte Christensen * | 29 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Tamicha Jackson * | 26 | 4-14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Lisa Harrison * | 26 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Edwina Brown | 14 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Plenette Pierson | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Iziane Castro Marques | 10 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Stacey Thomas | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Charmin Smith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swin Cash * | 33 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4-9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Deanna Nolan * | 30 | 5-14 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Ruth Riley * | 29 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Elaine Powell * | 25 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Cheryl Ford * | 25 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Kedra Holland-Corn | 22 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Barbara Farris | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Tamara Moore | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Sheila Lambert | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Ayana Walker | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Petra Ujhelyi | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter