Model Predictions
| Model | New Orleans Pelicans | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 68.9% | 31.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 68.9% | 31.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -9 (69-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Mashburn * | 38 | 6-18 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | - |
| P.J. Brown * | 35 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | - |
| David Wesley * | 34 | 5-16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 27 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| George Lynch * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Courtney Alexander | 28 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Robert Pack | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Jerome Moiso | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Robert Traylor | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Elden Campbell | 8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Jones * | 41 | 8-15 | 4-7 | 6-6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 23 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 38 | 6-17 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 | - |
| Caron Butler * | 34 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 31 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Travis Best * | 25 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Mike James | 22 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Eddie House | 11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| LaPhonso Ellis | 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Sean Marks | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
* = starter