Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 82.0% | 18.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 84.4% | 15.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 70.6% | 29.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.7% | 16.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.7% | 16.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets -9 (74-83). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 45 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 22 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 35 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 35 | 7-14 | 2-3 | 7-9 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 19 | - |
| Kevin Willis * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Malik Rose | 30 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Steven Smith | 23 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Steve Kerr | 19 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Danny Ferry | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Howard * | 37 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 21 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 30 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 | - |
| Junior Harrington * | 22 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Donnell Harvey * | 16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Vincent Yarbrough * | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Rodney White | 34 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Chris Whitney | 27 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 22 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Ryan Bowen | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Nikoloz Tskitishvili | 11 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Mark Blount | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter