Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +10 (101-91). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Battier * | 44 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 39 | 8-19 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Lorenzen Wright * | 32 | 5-15 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Gordan Giricek * | 26 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -5 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 23 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - |
| Drew Gooden | 30 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Earl Watson | 24 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Mike Batiste | 17 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Murphy * | 42 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 24 | - |
| Gilbert Arenas * | 35 | 9-17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Antawn Jamison * | 33 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Jason Richardson * | 29 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 23 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Adonal Foyle | 24 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Earl Boykins | 21 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Chris Mills | 14 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Bob Sura | 12 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter