Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +15 (93-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau Gasol * | 42 | 5-17 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Jason Williams * | 30 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 25 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Lorenzen Wright * | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Gordan Giricek * | 21 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Drew Gooden | 30 | 6-16 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Wesley Person | 26 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Mike Batiste | 20 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Earl Watson | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Cezary Trybanski | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Howard * | 38 | 11-23 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 23 | - |
| Junior Harrington * | 32 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Vincent Yarbrough * | 22 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Donnell Harvey * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Rodney White | 21 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Chris Whitney | 19 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Mark Blount | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Ryan Bowen | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Nikoloz Tskitishvili | 9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter