Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.1% | 75.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns +9 (116-107). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antawn Jamison * | 42 | 9-19 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Jason Richardson * | 40 | 9-17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Gilbert Arenas * | 36 | 10-16 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 11 | - |
| Troy Murphy * | 35 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 20 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Bob Sura | 27 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Adonal Foyle | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - |
| Earl Boykins | 11 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 9 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Chris Mills | 7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Marion * | 43 | 14-21 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 30 | - |
| Stephon Marbury * | 41 | 7-22 | 2-4 | 16-17 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 20 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 28 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Amar'e Stoudemire * | 27 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Scott Williams * | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Casey Jacobsen | 30 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Bo Outlaw | 27 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Jake Voskuhl | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Randy Brown | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Alton Ford | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
* = starter