Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.8% | 32.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 63.3% | 36.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.0% | 22.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -2 (65-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 46 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 33 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 38 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 37 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 9-11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 23 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | - |
| David Robinson * | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Malik Rose | 27 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 23 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Danny Ferry | 16 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Steve Kerr | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kevin Willis | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler * | 43 | 4-16 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 43 | 5-17 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 34 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Travis Best * | 32 | 3-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -3 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 19 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 27 | 1-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Mike James | 15 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | - |
| LaPhonso Ellis | 12 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Sean Marks | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Eddie House | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter