Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.7% | 92.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 9.2% | 90.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.7% | 91.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.7% | 91.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.3% | 85.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +22 (122-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Yarbrough * | 33 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 27 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Juwan Howard * | 25 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Donnell Harvey * | 24 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Junior Harrington * | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Rodney White | 26 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 6 | - |
| Nikoloz Tskitishvili | 26 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Chris Whitney | 21 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Mark Blount | 19 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 29 | 9-15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 29 | 9-14 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 12 | - |
| Adrian Griffin * | 26 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Raef LaFrentz * | 21 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Walt Williams | 29 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | - |
| Nick Van Exel | 25 | 11-13 | 7-9 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 24 | - |
| Shawn Bradley | 22 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Antoine Rigaudeau | 13 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Popeye Jones | 13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Avery Johnson | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
* = starter