Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Philadelphia 76ers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Philadelphia 76ers +5 (104-99). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Jones * | 41 | 6-18 | 3-9 | 7-10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 14 | - |
| Caron Butler * | 39 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 8-8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 32 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 28 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 19 | - |
| Travis Best * | 13 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | - |
| LaPhonso Ellis | 21 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Anthony Carter | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Mike James | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 13 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Eddie House | 11 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Philadelphia 76ers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Snow * | 45 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 13-14 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | - |
| Allen Iverson * | 44 | 8-22 | 0-2 | 9-15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Keith Van Horn * | 39 | 11-19 | 4-7 | 7-9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 21 | - |
| Aaron McKie * | 33 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Brian Skinner * | 31 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Derrick Coleman | 19 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| John Salmons | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Efthimios Rentzias | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Kenny Satterfield | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Todd MacCulloch | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter