Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.3% | 36.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.3% | 30.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -1 (108-109). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 41 | 10-24 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 22 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 38 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 36 | 8-11 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 26 | - |
| David Robinson * | 29 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 28 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -2 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 27 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Malik Rose | 23 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Steve Kerr | 11 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Danny Ferry | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy McGrady * | 39 | 15-36 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 14 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 37 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Pat Garrity * | 36 | 7-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Jacque Vaughn * | 27 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Shawn Kemp * | 17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Andrew DeClercq | 25 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Darrell Armstrong | 21 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Jeryl Sasser | 12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Pat Burke | 11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Ryan Humphrey | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Steven Hunter | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter