Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -9 (97-106). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Jackson * | 38 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 22 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 35 | 9-17 | 1-3 | 9-11 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 22 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 23 | 4-16 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - |
| David Robinson * | 23 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 21 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 26 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Malik Rose | 25 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Danny Ferry | 18 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Kevin Willis | 13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Steve Kerr | 12 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 39 | 9-20 | 0-1 | 13-14 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 22 | - |
| Reggie Miller * | 37 | 6-15 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 17 | - |
| Jamaal Tinsley * | 31 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Brad Miller * | 28 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Ron Mercer * | 20 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Al Harrington | 39 | 6-17 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Erick Strickland | 21 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Austin Croshere | 14 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Jeff Foster | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Fred Jones | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter