Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.8% | 25.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -23 (81-104). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Finley * | 39 | 8-14 | 7-10 | 6-6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 26 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 37 | 11-20 | 3-8 | 9-10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 26 | - |
| Raja Bell * | 28 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 26 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Raef LaFrentz * | 12 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Shawn Bradley | 24 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - |
| Nick Van Exel | 23 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Walt Williams | 16 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Antoine Rigaudeau | 11 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Adrian Griffin | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Avery Johnson | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Popeye Jones | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuttino Mobley * | 38 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Steve Francis * | 35 | 2-13 | 0-4 | 6-7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| James Posey * | 34 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Ming Yao * | 30 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 19 | - |
| Eddie Griffin * | 25 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Moochie Norris | 24 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Maurice Taylor | 16 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Kelvin Cato | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Terence Morris | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Juaquin Hawkins | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Bostjan Nachbar | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jason Collier | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter