Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +3 (91-88). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antawn Jamison * | 44 | 8-22 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 3 | - |
| Gilbert Arenas * | 39 | 11-19 | 2-5 | 4-7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 14 | - |
| Troy Murphy * | 38 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | - |
| Jason Richardson * | 27 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Erick Dampier * | 22 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Bob Sura | 25 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 6-10 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Adonal Foyle | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Earl Boykins | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 11 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Payton * | 42 | 7-20 | 1-3 | 5-10 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 38 | 7-13 | 2-2 | 6-10 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Desmond Mason * | 36 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Ansu Sesay * | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jerome James * | 18 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Kenny Anderson | 38 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Reggie Evans | 24 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - |
| Predrag Drobnjak | 11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Calvin Booth | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
* = starter