Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Timberwolves +11 (106-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 38 | 5-17 | 0-1 | 7-10 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Malik Rose * | 34 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 33 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 33 | 7-16 | 2-5 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 5 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 26 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 23 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Kevin Willis | 18 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Steve Kerr | 14 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Danny Ferry | 12 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Mengke Bateer | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Garnett * | 35 | 14-19 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 34 | - |
| Wally Szczerbiak * | 30 | 7-15 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Joe Smith * | 20 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Rasho Nesterovic * | 20 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Rod Strickland * | 9 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Troy Hudson | 30 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Peeler | 24 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Kendall Gill | 21 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Gary Trent | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Marc Jackson | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Igor Rakocevic | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter