Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 81.0% | 19.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.7% | 23.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.8% | 23.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -7 (95-102). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metta World Peace * | 38 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 5-10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Brad Miller * | 37 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | - |
| Jamaal Tinsley * | 31 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 4 | - |
| Reggie Miller * | 28 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 8-8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 26 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Al Harrington | 33 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Ron Mercer | 21 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Erick Strickland | 15 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Jeff Foster | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler * | 40 | 7-17 | 0-3 | 8-12 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 39 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Travis Best * | 37 | 7-10 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 36 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 33 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 16 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 15 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Mike James | 10 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| LaPhonso Ellis | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Eddie House | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter