Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Suns | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 74.1% | 25.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.5% | 28.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.5% | 28.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +7 (92-85). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Marion * | 45 | 12-23 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 13 | - |
| Stephon Marbury * | 44 | 7-16 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 42 | 6-17 | 0-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Bo Outlaw * | 30 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - |
| Amar'e Stoudemire * | 24 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Casey Jacobsen | 23 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Jake Voskuhl | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Scott Williams | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Randy Brown | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Dan Langhi | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler * | 45 | 3-12 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 33 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 32 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 20 | - |
| Rasual Butler * | 29 | 3-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -2 | - |
| Travis Best * | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Mike James | 25 | 5-10 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 11 | - |
| LaPhonso Ellis | 22 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Eddie House | 20 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
* = starter