Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.8% | 71.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +21 (107-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Francis * | 42 | 8-17 | 1-2 | 9-11 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 21 | - |
| Cuttino Mobley * | 33 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | - |
| James Posey * | 28 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Maurice Taylor * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Ming Yao * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Terence Morris | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Kelvin Cato | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | - |
| Moochie Norris | 17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Bostjan Nachbar | 16 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Juaquin Hawkins | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jason Collier | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Finley * | 32 | 7-14 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 31 | 7-15 | 2-4 | 10-10 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 26 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 29 | 7-12 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Raja Bell * | 26 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Raef LaFrentz * | 25 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Walt Williams | 26 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Adrian Griffin | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Nick Van Exel | 13 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Antoine Rigaudeau | 10 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Popeye Jones | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Shawn Bradley | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Avery Johnson | 5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
* = starter