Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +5 (87-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuttino Mobley * | 48 | 7-21 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | - |
| Steve Francis * | 31 | 1-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | - |
| James Posey * | 28 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Ming Yao * | 24 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Eddie Griffin * | 16 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Moochie Norris | 24 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Maurice Taylor | 23 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Kelvin Cato | 23 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Terence Morris | 20 | 7-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 42 | 11-21 | 0-0 | 10-11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 24 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 36 | 4-12 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Bruce Bowen * | 35 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| David Robinson * | 32 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 31 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Steven Smith | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Malik Rose | 15 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 12 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Steve Kerr | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Kevin Willis | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter