Model Predictions
| Model | Chicago Bulls | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +1 (102-101). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Rose * | 54 | 14-30 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 6 | - |
| Donyell Marshall * | 43 | 9-15 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 31 | - |
| Jay Williams * | 26 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Trenton Hassell * | 21 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Marcus Fizer | 36 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Jamal Crawford | 31 | 6-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Corie Blount | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Eddie Robinson | 22 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Eddy Curry | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Fred Hoiberg | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler * | 49 | 6-16 | 1-4 | 5-10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Eddie Jones * | 49 | 4-15 | 0-6 | 7-9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 48 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 24 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 47 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Mike James * | 40 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Vladimir Stepania | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Travis Best | 17 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Rasual Butler | 16 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
* = starter