Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 72.7% | 27.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.1% | 23.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.2% | 23.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns +5 (111-106). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 48 | 5-17 | 1-4 | 9-9 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 25 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 40 | 10-25 | 5-12 | 7-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 16 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 37 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | - |
| Raef LaFrentz * | 34 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Adrian Griffin * | 27 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Nick Van Exel | 26 | 5-15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Shawn Bradley | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Raja Bell | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Walt Williams | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Marbury * | 46 | 15-28 | 4-6 | 7-8 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 30 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 44 | 6-16 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 39 | 6-14 | 3-6 | 5-5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Bo Outlaw * | 30 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Amar'e Stoudemire * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Casey Jacobsen | 24 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Jake Voskuhl | 16 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Randy Brown | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Scott Williams | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter