Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Seattle Storm | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.6% | 63.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Seattle Storm +41 (89-48). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Harrison * | 27 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -3 | - |
| Jennifer Gillom * | 22 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -2 | - |
| Gordana Grubin * | 21 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Tracy Reid * | 20 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Adrian Williams-Strong * | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jaynetta Saunders | 29 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Kayte Christensen | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Kristen Veal | 15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Adriana Moises Pinto | 13 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Oksana Zakaluzhnaya | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Slobodanka Tuvic | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
Seattle Storm
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Jackson * | 24 | 9-20 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 14 | - |
| Sue Bird * | 24 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Adia Barnes * | 20 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Amanda Lassiter * | 16 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Kamila Vodichkova * | 16 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Simone Edwards | 23 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Michelle Marciniak | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Felicia Ragland | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Semeka Randall | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | - |
| TaKeisha Lewis | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | - |
| Kate Paye | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter