Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Orlando Miracle | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Miracle +2 (72-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.