Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Los Angeles Sparks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.8% | 80.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.7% | 76.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Sparks +25 (101-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Gillom * | 34 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 3-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Lisa Harrison * | 34 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Brandy Reed * | 33 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | - |
| Tonya Edwards * | 31 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Michelle Brogan * | 28 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Bridget Pettis | 16 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Adrian Williams-Strong | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Dena Head | 6 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Nicole Kubik | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeLisha Milton-Jones * | 32 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Mwadi Mabika * | 32 | 5-10 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Lisa Leslie * | 29 | 12-17 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 19 | - |
| Tamecka Dixon * | 25 | 6-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Ukari Figgs * | 24 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Clarisse Machanguana | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Nicky McCrimmon | 15 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Allison Feaster | 15 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Vedrana Grgin Fonseca | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| La'Keshia Frett | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Paige Sauer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter