Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Miracle | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | - |
| Margin | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | - |
| Pythagorean | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | - |
| Log Adjusted | 21.4% | 78.6% | - | - |
| Points Off/Def | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | - |
In progress: Phoenix Mercury +7 so far (84-77); predictions are graded once the game is final. Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.