Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Fever | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.1% | 79.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +14 (79-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rita Williams * | 39 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Monica Maxwell * | 35 | 3-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Gordana Grubin * | 35 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Alicia Thompson * | 29 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Kara Wolters * | 24 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jurgita Streimikyte | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Danielle McCulley | 10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Chantel Tremitiere | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Stephanie White | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonya Edwards * | 35 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Lisa Harrison * | 34 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Brandy Reed * | 30 | 10-17 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Jennifer Gillom * | 27 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Dena Head * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Bridget Pettis | 25 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Michelle Brogan | 20 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Rankica Sarenac | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter