Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Sacramento Monarchs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento Monarchs +1 (61-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Cleary * | 32 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Lisa Harrison * | 29 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Bridget Pettis * | 29 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tonya Edwards * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jennifer Gillom * | 14 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Brandy Reed | 29 | 9-18 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Michelle Brogan | 25 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Adrian Williams-Strong | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Rankica Sarenac | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Sacramento Monarchs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yolanda Griffith * | 35 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| Ruthie Bolton * | 33 | 4-17 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tangela Smith * | 23 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kedra Holland-Corn * | 22 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Ticha Penicheiro * | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Lady Grooms | 27 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Latasha Byears | 20 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Stacy Clinesmith | 20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Cindy Blodgett | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter