Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Sparks | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -6 (68-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeLisha Milton-Jones * | 37 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Lisa Leslie * | 37 | 11-23 | 1-4 | 7-7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 30 | - | - | |
| Mwadi Mabika * | 33 | 3-8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tamecka Dixon * | 32 | 4-11 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Ukari Figgs * | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Nicky McCrimmon | 17 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Allison Feaster | 8 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| La'Keshia Frett | 6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Vedrana Grgin Fonseca | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandy Reed * | 38 | 8-17 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Lisa Harrison * | 38 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Michelle Cleary * | 32 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Tonya Edwards * | 31 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jennifer Gillom * | 23 | 4-14 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Bridget Pettis | 15 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Rankica Sarenac | 13 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Michelle Brogan | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter