Model Predictions
| Model | Utah Starzz | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | - |
| Margin | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | - |
| Pythagorean | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | - |
| Log Adjusted | 33.5% | 66.5% | - | - |
| Points Off/Def | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | - |
In progress: Phoenix Mercury +10 so far (86-76); predictions are graded once the game is final. Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.