Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Utah Starzz | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | - |
| Margin | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | - |
| Pythagorean | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | - |
| Log Adjusted | 64.5% | 35.5% | - | - |
| Points Off/Def | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | - |
In progress: Utah Starzz +3 so far (87-84); predictions are graded once the game is final. Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.