Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Indiana Fever | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 78.4% | 21.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 67.3% | 32.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 69.3% | 30.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.8% | 16.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.8% | 16.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 72.3% | 27.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Indiana Fever -1 (65-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonya Edwards * | 34 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Brandy Reed * | 32 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Lisa Harrison * | 31 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Michelle Brogan * | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Adrian Williams-Strong * | 14 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Michelle Cleary | 23 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Rankica Sarenac | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Bridget Pettis | 21 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - |
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monica Maxwell * | 38 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kara Wolters * | 36 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | - | - | |
| Alicia Thompson * | 34 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Gordana Grubin * | 32 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Rita Williams * | 30 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Chantel Tremitiere | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Stephanie White | 7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jurgita Streimikyte | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Danielle McCulley | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter