Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Wings | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 24.1% | 75.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +14 (83-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Wings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwina Brown | 30 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Elena Tornikidou | 29 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Joy Holmes | 25 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Wendy Palmer | 24 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Claudia Neves | 24 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Anna DeForge | 21 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Astou Ndiaye-Diatta | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Olympia Scott | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Oksana Zakaluzhnaya | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandy Reed | 40 | 8-16 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 23 | - |
| Michelle Brogan | 38 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Tonya Edwards | 30 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Lisa Harrison | 30 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Adrian Williams-Strong | 26 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Bridget Pettis | 17 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Michelle Cleary | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Rankica Sarenac | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter