Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Houston Comets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Comets +11 (69-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandy Reed * | 36 | 2-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Michelle Brogan * | 30 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Jennifer Gillom * | 30 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | - |
| Lisa Harrison * | 30 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Tonya Edwards * | 29 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | - |
| Maria Stepanova | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Michelle Cleary | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Bridget Pettis | 11 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Adrian Williams-Strong | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Houston Comets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cynthia Cooper * | 38 | 8-13 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Sheryl Swoopes * | 37 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 13-15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Tina Thompson * | 34 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Janeth Arcain * | 32 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Tiffani Johnson * | 29 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Jennifer Rizzotti | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Elena Shakirova | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Tammy Jackson | 8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter