Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | New York Liberty | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.2% | 20.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.4% | 20.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: New York Liberty +13 (82-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonya Edwards * | 31 | 5-12 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Brandy Reed * | 30 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Michelle Brogan * | 29 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 8-9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jennifer Gillom * | 28 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 6-8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Bridget Pettis * | 21 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Michelle Cleary | 25 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Adrian Williams-Strong | 14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Lisa Harrison | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Maria Stepanova | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dena Head | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
New York Liberty
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vickie Johnson * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Crystal Robinson * | 31 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Teresa Weatherspoon * | 31 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Tari Phillips * | 26 | 10-19 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Marina Ferragut * | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Becky Hammon | 26 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tamika Whitmore | 18 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Sue Wicks | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jessica Bibby | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Olga Firsova | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Shea Mahoney | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter