Model Predictions
| Model | Miami (OH) | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.8% | 34.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +7 (58-51). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.