Model Predictions
| Model | Yale | Harvard | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 67.3% | 32.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Harvard -13 (82-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.