Model Predictions
| Model | VMI | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.0% | 89.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.2% | 95.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.2% | 95.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Davidson -6 (60-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages; those weekly fits give Davidson, ESPN's listed home team, the home edge at this neutral site.