Model Predictions
| Model | Green Bay | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State +3 (77-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.