Model Predictions
| Model | VMI | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.0% | 94.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.0% | 94.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.0% | 94.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +35 (84-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.