Model Predictions
| Model | UC Irvine | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.1% | 22.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.1% | 22.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly -6 (62-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.