Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marshall -4 (53-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.