Model Predictions
| Model | Louisville | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.8% | 24.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.7% | 24.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cincinnati +21 (101-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.