Model Predictions
| Model | Navy | Colgate | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.5% | 78.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Colgate +21 (73-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.