Model Predictions
| Model | Gardner-Webb | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Samford +9 (63-54). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.