Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 64.7% | 35.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 86.1% | 13.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 86.2% | 13.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly +3 (66-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.